Cold War Warrior puts Career on Ice

"...I want a drink, Harry was thinking. What the hell do I care about his revolution. F___ his revolution. To help the working man he robs a bank and kills a fellow worked with him and then kills that poor damned Albert that never did any harm. That's a working man he kills. He never thinks of that. With a family. It's the Cubans run Cuba. They all double cross each other. They sell each other out. They get what they deserve. The hell with their revolutions. All I got to do is make a living for my family and I can't do that. Then he tells me about his revolution. The hell with his revolution...." Harry Morgan's thoughts after having his vessel commandered and first mate shot by Cuban rebels who have just robbed a bank to raise funds for the revolution in To Have and Have Not by Ernest Hemingway.

81 year old victim of colon cancer, Fidel Castro has just announced his retirement from active political life, replacing himself with his brother Raul and stirring fresh debate about the future of Cuba.

After ousting the decadent US backed government of Fulgencio Batista in the Cuban Revolution in 1959, the Jesuit-educated lawyer and socialist idealist has been in charge for almost 50 years , surviving a crippling economic embargo instigated by the US in 1962 and innumerable CIA assassination attempts. Holding power by force of charisma, cunning and luck and having been given little alternative by the US, he looked for and found political friends wherever he could.

His affiliation with the Soviets bankrolled his regime, brought the world to the brink of nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis and provided Cuba with a market for a new export product - soldiers - who fought with the Soviets in Angola and Ethiopia. Castro wryly rid himself of noxious criminals and malcontents by allowing them passage to Florida to expand the USA's underclass. More dangerous political threats were incarcerated. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1989, the resourceful Castro found a new backer, President Chavez, from oil rich Venezuela.

His ideology inhibited investment and industrial development and drove countless Cubans across the water to Maimi , the base of the Anti-Castro movement. Histrionics between the two camps, never in short supply were highlighted by a tortuous public tug-of-war over 6 year old Elian Gonzalez, whose mother drowned while attempting to reach Miami in 2000. Castro's illegitimate daughter is a vociferous critic of his regime and runs an anti Castro radio show in Miami.

Now that Castro is stepping down, what of the future? Cuba has not had a democratic election for almost 50 years. How realistically can one expect an abrupt transition from dicatorship to democracy to be smooth? A rudderless economically weak and ideologically confused post-dictator state without a strong leader is more than likely to crumble into chaos.